Prediction Accuracy

Mean absolute error (MAE) is the average gap, in finishing positions, between a predicted finish and the real one. Lower is better. Each point is one completed race; the pre-qualifying line uses the prediction made before the grid was set, the post-qualifying line the one made after.

All Series — Post-qualifying MAE over time

0 5 10 15 MAE (positions) Feb 22 Apr 12 May 17 Jun 28 Aug 09 MAE 4.09 MAE 4.09 MAE 1.91 MAE 3.91 MAE 4.64 MAE 5.36 MAE 2.73 MAE 2.82 MAE 4.36 MAE 4.55 MAE 4.18 MAE 6.39 MAE 5.77 MAE 7.74 MAE 12.46 MAE 10.79 MAE 9.51 MAE 8.97 MAE 5.11 MAE 7.57 MAE 5.89 MAE 6.76 MAE 6.86 MAE 13.35 MAE 8.95 MAE 7.26 MAE 7.85 MAE 9.23 MAE 9.74 MAE 8.32 MAE 5.89 MAE 8.21 MAE 7.19 MAE 7.84 MAE 7.92 MAE 8.43 MAE 11.49 MAE 9.97
Formula 1 NASCAR

Formula 1 — MAE over time

0 2 4 6 8 MAE (positions) Dec 07 Mar 15 May 03 Jun 14 Jul 05 Jul 26 MAE 4.09 MAE 4.09 MAE 1.91 MAE 3.91 MAE 4.64 MAE 5.36 MAE 2.73 MAE 2.82 MAE 4.36 MAE 4.55 MAE 4.18 MAE 4.16 MAE 4.00 MAE 4.27 MAE 2.45 MAE 4.00 MAE 4.27 MAE 5.73 MAE 2.82 MAE 2.82 MAE 4.36 MAE 6.00 MAE 6.27
Post-qualifying Pre-qualifying
Post-qual MAE 3.88 Pre-qual MAE 4.26 Races scored 12

NASCAR — MAE over time

0 5 10 15 MAE (positions) Nov 02 Mar 01 Apr 12 May 24 Jun 28 Aug 09 MAE 6.39 MAE 5.77 MAE 7.74 MAE 12.46 MAE 10.79 MAE 9.51 MAE 8.97 MAE 5.11 MAE 7.57 MAE 5.89 MAE 6.76 MAE 6.86 MAE 13.35 MAE 8.95 MAE 7.26 MAE 7.85 MAE 9.23 MAE 9.74 MAE 8.32 MAE 5.89 MAE 8.21 MAE 7.19 MAE 7.84 MAE 7.92 MAE 8.43 MAE 11.49 MAE 9.97 MAE 8.31 MAE 6.43 MAE 5.82 MAE 7.57 MAE 12.41 MAE 10.32 MAE 9.51 MAE 8.92 MAE 5.94 MAE 7.68 MAE 7.19 MAE 7.46 MAE 7.14 MAE 13.20 MAE 9.11 MAE 8.53 MAE 8.54 MAE 9.44 MAE 10.21 MAE 8.59 MAE 6.11 MAE 8.51 MAE 8.44 MAE 9.89 MAE 8.00 MAE 7.16 MAE 12.13 MAE 10.58
Post-qualifying Pre-qualifying
Post-qual MAE 8.48 Pre-qual MAE 8.81 Races scored 28