Prediction Accuracy

Mean absolute error (MAE) is the average gap, in finishing positions, between a predicted finish and the real one. Lower is better. Each point is one completed race; the pre-qualifying line uses the prediction made before the grid was set, the post-qualifying line the one made after.

All Series — Post-qualifying MAE over time

0 5 10 15 MAE (positions) Mar 08 May 10 Jun 28 Aug 29 Oct 11 MAE 4.09 MAE 4.09 MAE 1.91 MAE 3.91 MAE 4.64 MAE 5.36 MAE 2.73 MAE 2.82 MAE 4.36 MAE 4.55 MAE 4.18 MAE 3.62 MAE 5.43 MAE 4.95 MAE 4.91 MAE 5.09 MAE 6.39 MAE 7.74 MAE 5.77 MAE 12.46 MAE 10.79 MAE 9.51 MAE 8.97 MAE 5.11 MAE 7.57 MAE 5.89 MAE 6.76 MAE 6.86 MAE 13.35 MAE 8.95 MAE 7.26 MAE 7.85 MAE 9.23 MAE 9.74 MAE 8.32 MAE 5.89 MAE 8.21 MAE 7.19 MAE 7.84 MAE 7.92 MAE 8.43 MAE 11.49 MAE 9.97 MAE 6.64 MAE 8.61 MAE 12.03 MAE 6.68 MAE 9.94 MAE 7.86 MAE 5.97 MAE 7.39 MAE 9.14
Formula 1 NASCAR

Formula 1 — MAE over time

0 2 4 6 8 MAE (positions) Dec 07 Mar 29 Jun 14 Jul 19 Sep 13 Oct 11 MAE 4.09 MAE 4.09 MAE 1.91 MAE 3.91 MAE 4.64 MAE 5.36 MAE 2.73 MAE 2.82 MAE 4.36 MAE 4.55 MAE 4.18 MAE 3.62 MAE 5.43 MAE 4.95 MAE 4.91 MAE 5.09 MAE 4.16 MAE 4.00 MAE 4.27 MAE 2.45 MAE 4.00 MAE 4.27 MAE 5.73 MAE 2.82 MAE 2.82 MAE 4.36 MAE 6.00 MAE 6.27 MAE 5.81 MAE 6.24 MAE 6.71 MAE 5.18 MAE 5.91 MAE 4.18
Post-qualifying Pre-qualifying
Post-qual MAE 4.16 Pre-qual MAE 4.73 Races scored 18

NASCAR — MAE over time

0 5 10 15 MAE (positions) Nov 02 Mar 15 May 10 Jun 28 Aug 23 Oct 11 MAE 6.39 MAE 7.74 MAE 5.77 MAE 12.46 MAE 10.79 MAE 9.51 MAE 8.97 MAE 5.11 MAE 7.57 MAE 5.89 MAE 6.76 MAE 6.86 MAE 13.35 MAE 8.95 MAE 7.26 MAE 7.85 MAE 9.23 MAE 9.74 MAE 8.32 MAE 5.89 MAE 8.21 MAE 7.19 MAE 7.84 MAE 7.92 MAE 8.43 MAE 11.49 MAE 9.97 MAE 6.64 MAE 8.61 MAE 12.03 MAE 6.68 MAE 9.94 MAE 7.86 MAE 5.97 MAE 7.39 MAE 9.14 MAE 8.31 MAE 6.43 MAE 7.57 MAE 5.82 MAE 12.41 MAE 10.32 MAE 9.51 MAE 8.92 MAE 5.94 MAE 7.68 MAE 7.19 MAE 7.46 MAE 7.14 MAE 13.20 MAE 9.11 MAE 8.53 MAE 8.54 MAE 9.44 MAE 10.21 MAE 8.59 MAE 6.11 MAE 8.51 MAE 8.44 MAE 9.89 MAE 8.00 MAE 7.16 MAE 12.13 MAE 10.58 MAE 7.19 MAE 9.47 MAE 12.13 MAE 7.45 MAE 9.86 MAE 8.47 MAE 6.14 MAE 7.58 MAE 9.14
Post-qualifying Pre-qualifying
Post-qual MAE 8.43 Pre-qual MAE 8.77 Races scored 37